Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.947267 2.038795 2.135963 2.247471 2.372779 2.510325 2.674267
2025-11-09 1.836502 1.952978 2.081182 2.234511 2.415389 2.625397 2.893195
2025-11-16 1.759773 1.891794 2.040884 2.224700 2.449801 2.723319 3.093075
2025-11-23 1.697543 1.840135 2.004405 2.211921 2.474024 2.805255 3.277538
2025-11-30 1.658914 1.812098 1.991879 2.224326 2.526991 2.925173 3.526625
2025-12-07 1.592867 1.747235 1.930265 2.170011 2.487673 2.915645 3.585605
2025-12-14 1.553111 1.711853 1.902316 2.155649 2.498417 2.973942 3.753221
2025-12-21 1.513650 1.674830 1.870080 2.133064 2.495171 3.010313 3.889826
2025-12-28 1.498661 1.667042 1.873726 2.157039 2.557001 3.147408 4.221338
2026-01-04 1.490170 1.666647 1.886253 2.192914 2.637701 3.322134 4.665641
2026-01-11 1.465443 1.644589 1.869448 2.187194 2.656282 3.398676 4.938145
2026-01-18 1.446861 1.629583 1.861039 2.192299 2.690879 3.505264 5.307999
2026-01-25 1.412734 1.594306 1.825476 2.158694 2.665758 3.509358 5.452909
2026-02-01 1.389177 1.571941 1.806238 2.147285 2.674229 3.574040 5.774021
2026-02-08 1.368109 1.552115 1.789585 2.138565 2.685973 3.645795 6.147731
2026-02-15 1.347280 1.531957 1.771696 2.127011 2.691981 3.707057 6.524387
2026-02-22 1.335857 1.523747 1.769654 2.138475 2.736398 3.849825 7.263650
2026-03-01 1.303847 1.487468 1.727887 2.088694 2.674202 3.766535 7.133943
2026-03-08 1.285765 1.469349 1.710793 2.075526 2.673869 3.813416 7.552681
2026-03-15 1.265939 1.448458 1.689269 2.054770 2.659117 3.827768 7.853779
2026-03-22 1.261248 1.447671 1.695689 2.076835 2.720437 4.017999 9.193599
2026-03-29 1.260203 1.451684 1.708858 2.109796 2.803837 4.277013 11.572978
2026-04-05 1.247223 1.439156 1.698094 2.104550 2.816652 4.367761 13.112793